NXFinance Research

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Independent analysis of the forces reshaping value, risk and the allocation of capital.

Flagship analysis

Capital allocation · September 2026

The Return of the Cost of Capital

Why higher real yields may matter more for investors than the next central-bank decision.

After years of exceptionally cheap capital, the investment environment is changing. Higher real yields and an infrastructure-heavy AI cycle are restoring capital discipline to the centre of valuation and portfolio construction.

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Chart from The Return of the Cost of Capital showing the capital intensity of the AI investment cycle
Inside the analysis · AI moves from software narrative to physical capital cycle

Three implications for decision-makers

01Capital has a price again.
02AI has a capital-demand dimension.
03Growth and value creation are not the same.

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Our lens

From growth to shareholder returns.

We do not reproduce the news cycle. Each analysis isolates what changed, identifies the economic mechanism and follows its consequences through performance, capital allocation and value.

Growth→Margins→NOPLAT→Invested capital→ROIC→Cost of capital→FCF→Valuation

Independent thinking for consequential capital decisions.

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